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Market Forecasts

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market intelligence

Market forecast reports

Apricum's market forecasts: reliable, robust intelligence

As part of its tailored strategy and transaction advisory services, Apricum produces a range of proprietary models for highlighting current trends globally in renewable energy industries such as PV and wind. From these models, we produce detailed market forecast reports that are invaluable to clients who are seeking to enter the renewable industries or who are already active in renewables and require support expanding into new markets.

Global PV market forecast

Apricum Global Mid-Term PV Market Trends Q3 2017

  • In the mid-term, global PV demand will be strongly influenced by China’s PV policy development, as well as the capability of developers globally to realize large auctioned projects despite the bottoming bid prices
  • Amongst the largest markets, China will remain dominant as new PV programs introduced in 2016 begin to translate into demand; the future of the U.S. market will be determined by the outcome of the Suniva petition; India in 2017 will supplant Japan as the third-largest PV market in the world and may challenge the USA for second spot
Global PV market forecast
  • Markets globally have largely transitioned from FiT-driven growth to competitive tendering, as governments large and small seek to reduce cost of subsidies
  • Strong technological development and overcapacity combine to drive the cost of PV to new lows, creating an ever stronger economic case for solar to offset the impact of subsidy cutbacks
  • Battery storage advances will gradually become a driver in select applications toward 2020

Overview of key developments influencing Apricum's Q3 2017 model

  • China: In China, an especially large spillover of the June installation peak into July occurred and rumors abound that the FiT for distributed generation projects will be significantly reduced at the beginning of 2018 –> Apricum increased its 2017 forecast significantly to take into account July numbers and an expected rush to complete projects by end of 2017; Apricum also increased its long-term forecast to reflect the belief that PV installations in China will not drop drastically (though remaining at 60 GW per year is unlikely)
  • USA: Amended low case to reflect the US ITC’s finding of injury in Suniva’s trade petition, increasing the likelihood that tariffs will be imposed; verdict expected end-2017 with almost immediate effect; developers are stockpiling modules –> low case decreased in 2018
  • India: Great success of rooftop program with 1 GW expected for 2017; utility scale, however faces problems with tender delays, import duties and a GST on some solar equipment –> 2017 estimate increased along with long-term forecast due to rooftop PV, while 2018 estimate was reduced as utility-scale projects face delays
  • Japan: Module shipments to Japan have been consistently lower than 2016 throughout the year and the latest installation numbers from Q1 2017 indicate a declining trend –> decreased estimate for 2017 to account for slowdown, however, we increased our mid-term low case due to greater expectations for distributed projects and completion of legacy FiT pipeline

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q3/2017

PV & wind development in the MENAT region

Apricum also gathers data at a regional level, e.g., MENAT (Middle East Northern Africa and Turkey), Latin America and Asia. Let's take a closer look at the MENAT region with the following market summaries.

MENA PV market forecast

Apricum MENAT Region PV Overview

While Saudi Arabia made the biggest headlines with its Sakaka tender, the Turkish PV market will double in 2017.

Key Q3 2017 conclusions for MENAT:

  • PV competitiveness was pushed into overdrive in Saudi Arabia with an unprecedented bid of 1.78 USD ct/kWh by Masdar and EDF for the 300 MW Sakaka PV project –> The project has not been officially awarded yet as the bids must be checked for compliance, however, it highlights the cut-throat nature of large competitive tenders, which are increasingly becoming the domain of large global IPPs and utilities
  • Also related to the Sakaka bid, Apricum believes that developers must have included assumptions for bifacial modules to increase yield –> This is in line with our expectations as developers continually seek ways to increase yields and reduce costs to drive the competitiveness of their bids
  • The Turkish PV market is currently experiencing a rush to complete projects by the end of the year before distribution fees for unlicensed projects are hiked, effectively reducing the FiT –> Over 500 MW was installed in H1 and Apricum expects an even larger number to be installed in H2 as developers try to maximize their returns; with strict local content rules and major room for PV growth, Turkey has the potential to become a manufacturing hotspot

Apricum MENAT Region Wind Overview

Saudi Arabia’s Dumat Al Jandal project progresses as planned. Turkey awarded a 1 GW tender.

Overview of Q3 2017 update and forecast impact:

  • Saudi Arabia: RfP for 400 MW Dumat Al Jandal project was released on-time and shortlisted companies were announced
    –> no change of forecast as tender delay was already known and incorporated into last quarter’s report
  • Turkey: Siemens Gamesa won in a consortium a 1 GW tender; a pre-licensing round of 3 GW was kicked-off, 710 MW were already awarded with remaining 2.3 GW expected to be awarded this year; another 2 GW round is expected in 2018
    –> slight increase in long-term forecast because of newly announced pre-licensing round
  • Egypt: Gulf of Suez 250 MW tender proceeds with fourshortlisted bidders in the next round; Toyota consortium’s 250 MW seems to be slightly delayed –> slight decrease in 2018 and an increase of installations in the period 2019–2020 predicted
  • Lebanon: Three private projects totaling 202 MW were awarded
    –> increased forecast in the mid-term
Projected Wind Demand in MENAT (GW)

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