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Market Forecasts

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market intelligence

Market forecast reports

Apricum's market forecasts: reliable, robust intelligence

As part of its tailored strategy and transaction advisory services, Apricum produces a range of proprietary models for highlighting current trends globally in renewable energy industries such as PV and wind. From these models, we produce detailed market forecast reports that are invaluable to clients who are seeking to enter the renewable industries or who are already active in renewables and require support expanding into new markets.

Global PV market forecast

Apricum Global PV Market Summary

  • 2016 was the first year in which the global PV market exceeded the size of the wind market; 2017 will be a continuation of this trend and Apricum expects the gap to continue widening in the long term
  • 2017 global volumes is expected to stay relatively flat vis a vis 2016; volumes in the mid-term will continue to be strongly influenced by boom–bust cycles in the largest markets, driven by FiT and incentive cliffs
  • The global trend of transition from FiT subsidies to competitive tendering continues in markets large and small as governments large and small seek to reduce cost of subsidies; Japan and China are amongst the markets making the transition this year
  • These competitive dynamics drive the cost of PV to new lows, creating an ever stronger economic case for solar that will drive demand despite subsidy cutbacks
  • Battery storage advances are also expected to drive PV installations in select applications and markets toward 2020.

PV development in the MENAT region

Apricum also gathers data at a regional level, e.g., MENAT (Middle East Northern Africa and Turkey), Latin America and Asia. Let's take a closer look at the MENAT region with the following PV market forecast.

Apricum MENAT PV Market Summary

  • The MENAT PV market will grow modestly in 2017 before the market takes a leap in 2018, when a significant part of the pipeline currently under construction is due to commission
  • The region’s cumulative capacity is expected to reach more than 25 GW by 2021 as installations accelerate
  • Preference for large-scale projects in MENAT and low PV costs are driving a huge pipeline of tenders
  • There is strong political support for solar in the region given the positive publicity from UAE achieving world record low costs twice in 2016
  • PV is also tied to several governments’ interest in expanding high-tech manufacturing in their respective countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Turkey)
  • However, a high degree of uncertainty (due to regulatory delays, slow implementation, regime change, financing risks, etc.) remains in some markets

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