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Market Forecasts

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market intelligence

Market forecast reports

Apricum's market forecasts: reliable, robust intelligence

As part of its tailored strategy and transaction advisory services, Apricum produces a range of proprietary models for highlighting current trends globally in renewable energy industries such as PV and wind. From these models, we produce detailed market forecast reports that are invaluable to clients who are seeking to enter the renewable industries or who are already active in renewables and require support expanding into new markets.

Global PV market forecast

Apricum Global Mid-Term PV Market Trends 2017 Q2

  • In the mid-term, global PV demand will be strongly influenced by boom–bust cycles given the significant roles of FiT and incentive cliffs in the largest markets
  • Amongst the largest markets, China will remain dominant as new PV programs introduced in 2016 begin to translate into demand; USA will decline unless new markets emerge to replace the saturating early-adopter states; India in 2017 will supplant Japan as the third-largest PV market in the world
  • A global transition is underway from FiT-driven growth to competitive tendering, as governments large and small seek to reduce cost of subsidies
  • Strong technological development and overcapacity combine to drive the cost of PV to new lows, creating an ever stronger economic case for solar to offset the impact of subsidy cutbacks
  • Battery storage advances will gradually become a driver in select applications toward 2020
Global PV market forecast

China forecast materially increased; Japan/Korea reduced due to underperforming 2016

Overview of key developments influencing Apricum's 2017 Q2 model

  • China: 2016 installations increased sharply from a combination of strong market performance and change in basis of Apricum’s figures; forecast also increased significantly based on discussions with industry sources –> mid-term increased with   expectations of strong demand from the distributed Apricum’s figures1 PV and non-FiT programs
  • Japan: Weak 1Q results and the expected rush towards Apr 1 FiT deadline did not materialize –> reduced 2016 and assumed some of 2017 installations pushed back to 2018
  • India: India doubled its target for solar parks installation to 40 GW by 2022 à mid-term figures reduced to reflect potential project failure from over-aggressive bidding and land scarcity; 2016 also reduced to reflect official government figures2
  • USA: Strong finish in December, and developers in some states have been successfully using an old regulation, the PURPA, to drive utility-scale demand –> 2016 increased but no   significant change in medium-term drivers
  • Korea: Slow second half in 2016 and no concrete developments on tenders –> reduced 2017/2018
  • Mexico: 754 MW project by Enel began construction, two sizable private PPAs were signed and a net-metering program put in place –> increased mid-term forecast, especially 2018/2019

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q2/2017; 1) Previous forecast of 27 GW for 2016 excluded 4 GW installed in 2016 but commissioned in 2016, not amended to reflect official figures from NEA; 2) previously based on estimates by market analysts

PV & wind development in the MENAT region

Apricum also gathers data at a regional level, e.g., MENAT (Middle East Northern Africa and Turkey), Latin America and Asia. Let's take a closer look at the MENAT region with the following market summaries.

MENA PV market forecast

Apricum MENAT PV Market Summary

KSA program revamp, Turkish market success and progress in Iran were the major stories of Q1.

Overview of 2017 Q2 update and forecast impact:

  • Turkey: Turkish market outperforms in 2016 and awards 1 GW Konya tender; Apricum raises estimate for 2016 and for forecast
  • Jordan: New ACWA Power 61 MW project and strong net-metering performance led Apricum to raise its forecast for 2018 and 2019
  • Saudi Arabia: With greater visibility and certainty about REPDO program, Apricum raised low case
  • UAE: Sweihan (1.2 GWp1) officially awarded to Jinko-Marubeni consortium and PPA signed as expected and ADWEA announced its plans to run another large tender leading Apricum to raise 2020–2021 forecast
  • Morocco: Continued delays on Noor EPC projects led Apricum to lower its forecast slightly
  • Iran: Success of 100% equity-financed projects in Q1 and plethora of signed PPAs led Apricum to significantly raise forecast
  • Algeria: 4 GW tender to be divided into three 1.35 GW rounds increases likelihood that projects will be spread over a longer timeframe; Apricum reduced forecast

Apricum MENAT Wind Market Summary

Projects in Egypt and Morocco face delays, while Saudi Arabia’s wind tender leads to an increased forecast.

Overview of 2017 Q2 update and forecast impact:

  • Turkey: After strong year of 2016, a declining market in 2017 is predicted due to fewer wind project permissions granted à lowered forecast for 2017
  • Saudi Arabia:  RfQ 400 MW tender has been released; another 400 MW wind tender is announced to take place in Q4 2017; projected SEC tender cancelled à reduced forecast for 2018 and increased forecast for 2019/20 to reflect tenders
  • Egypt: Elsewedy and Marubeni formed a consortium to develop a new 500 MW project; bid for West Nile  project has been delayed because companies that bought executive regulations have not made any inquiries about the tender; also several FiT project installations delayed à lowered medium term forecast in the low and high case
  • Morocco: 200 MW Jbel Lahdid wind farm starts construction, which is part of the 850 MW  tender; various other projects face delays à shifted forecasts from 2017/18 to 2019/20
Projected Wind Demand in MENAT (GW)

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