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Market Forecasts

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market intelligence

Market forecast reports


Apricum's market forecasts: reliable, robust intelligence

As part of its tailored strategy and transaction advisory services, Apricum produces a range of proprietary models for highlighting current trends globally in renewable energy industries such as PV and wind. From these models, we produce detailed market forecast reports that are invaluable to clients who are seeking to enter the renewable industries or who are already active in renewables and require support expanding into new markets.

Global PV market forecast


Apricum Global Mid-Term PV Market Trends Q4 2017

  • In the mid-term, global PV demand will be strongly influenced by China’s PV policy development, as well as the capability of developers globally to realize large auctioned projects despite the bottoming bid prices
  • Amongst the largest markets, China will remain dominant even as new PV programs introduced in 2016 begin to reshape domestic demand; the U.S. enters a new phase as the market prepares to assimilate new tariffs; India in 2017 has supplanted Japan as the third-largest PV market in the world and may soon challenge the U.S. for second spot
Global PV market forecast
  • Markets globally have largely transited from FiT-driven growth to competitive tendering, as governments large and small seek to reduce cost of subsidies
  • Strong technological development and overcapacity combine to drive the cost of PV to new lows, creating an ever stronger economic case for solar to offset the impact of subsidy cutbacks
  • Battery storage advances will gradually become a driver in select applications toward 2020

Overview of key developments influencing Apricum's Q4 2017 model

  • China: China recorded installations of 48.7 GW as of Nov-17 but beyond Dec-17 the coming months look to soften; in Q4, the NEA cut FiT for utility-scale and distributed projects by 12–15% and launched Round 3 of the Top Runner program with higher efficiency criteria –> reduced mid-term high case to be in the range of 55 GW and low case to be ~45 GW
  • USA: The final tax reform bill was signed with the solar ITC largely intact, putting to rest previous fears that BEAT1 provisions would nullify the value of the ITCs to equity tax investors; on the Suniva front, all of US ITC commissioners’ recommendations fall short of petitioners’ requests –> raised low case as worst case scenario averted
  • Japan: First-ever 500 MW auction awarded only 140 MW at (globally speaking) high tariffs of 15.3–18.8 USDc/kWh –> reduced both mid-term high and low cases on poor performance
  • France: Government raised annual capacity of small- and large-scale tenders from 1.45 GW to 2.45 GW; EDF separately announced plans to install 30 GW in France through 2035 –> raised mid-term high/low case forecast
  • Netherlands: Government renews budget for its SDE+ renewables program with EUR 12B approved for 2018, the same as in 2017 –> raised mid-term high/low case forecast
  • Chile: Government connected the two main national grids and launched land auctions for PV projects in the sunny north of Atacama –> raised mid-term high/low case forecast

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q4/2017

PV & wind development in the MENAT region


Apricum also gathers data at a regional level, e.g., MENAT (Middle East Northern Africa and Turkey), Latin America and Asia. Let's take a closer look at the MENAT region with the following market summaries.

MENA PV market forecast

Apricum MENAT Region PV Overview

MENAT installed a total of 2.4 GW PV in 2017, up significantly from 1.4 GW the year before

Key Q4 2017 conclusions for MENAT:

  • The MENAT PV market is expected to take a big leap forward in 2018 and 2019, when a significant part of the pipeline under construction today is completed
  • The region’s cumulative capacity is expected to reach approximately 36.5 GWp by 2021 as installations accelerate
  • There is preference for large-scale, competitively tendered projects in MENAT; the tender framework has proven successful in Jordan, Morocco and the UAE, while many additional tenders are announced or underway (e.g., in Algeria, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Oman)
  • Low PV costs are driving a huge pipeline of projects
  • There is strong political support for solar in the region given the positive publicity from the runaway success in UAE and the need in many states to reduce the burden of energy subsidies; PV also supports governments’ interest in expanding their countries’ high-tech manufacturing industry
  • High degree of uncertainty (regulatory delays, regime change, slow implementation, financing risks, etc.) in some markets

Apricum MENAT Region Wind Overview

Turkey awarded 2.1 GW of pre-licenses and prepares for new tender. PPAs for Egypt projects have been signed.

Overview of Q4 2017 update and forecast impact:

  • Turkey: Teias issued 2.1 GW in preliminary licenses concluding the 3 GW pre-licensing round; another 2–3 GW tender round is expected for April 2018 –> no change of forecast because the finalization of the pre-licensing round and a new tender were already expected in last quarter
  • Egypt: PPAs for Toyota consortium’s 250 MW Gulf of Suez and Lekkala JV’s 250 MW plants were signed; multiple projects have been announced or wait for government approval (e.g., 500 MW Marubeni project); rumors circulate about a 400 MW NREA tender –> slight decrease in 2018 and increase of installations in the medium-term
  • Morocco: 120 MW Khalladi wind farm produced first electricity (not fully commissioned); Siemens opened its blade plant –> shift of Khalladi project to 2018
  • Saudi Arabia: announcement made to build a mega-city 100% powered by renewable electricity sources –> no change of forecast yet, may become a driver for further tenders
Projected Wind Demand in MENAT (GW)

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