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Market perspectives

Discover Apricum's latest
market intelligence

Market insights

 

Apricum's market insights: reliable, robust intelligence

As part of its tailored strategy and transaction advisory services, Apricum produces a range of proprietary models for highlighting current trends globally in renewable energy industries such as PV and wind. From these models, we produce detailed market forecast reports that are invaluable to clients who are seeking to enter the renewable industries or who are already active in renewables and require support expanding into new markets.

Global PV market forecast

 

Apricum Global Mid-Term PV Market Trends Q2 2018

  • In the short-term, global PV demand will be strongly influenced by China’s new PV policy shift
  • Amongst the largest markets, China will remain dominant although markedly lower than last year’s; the U.S. remains in the second spot with a stable annual installation and marginal impact from new tariffs; India will continue to grow and keep the third spot with new strikingly higher targets announced though current uncertainties (e.g., safeguard duties) in the market expected to have some impact; Australia’s market will boom with large utility-scale projects; new emerging and developing markets will compensate the installation gap by China
Apricum Global PV market forecast
  • Markets globally have largely transited from FiT-driven growth to competitive tendering, as governments seek to reduce cost of PV deployments
  • Battery storage advances will gradually become a driver in selected applications toward 2020, especially in Australia

Overview of key developments influencing Apricum's Q2 2018 model

  • China: The government hits the brake on solar development by substantially reducing the targets for distributed generation to 10 GW and completely abolishing targets for the utility-scale segment in 2018 –> Substantially reduced both low and high case forecast from 2018 onwards
  • India: The government imposes and later suspends safeguard duties on cells and modules from China and Malaysia in compliance with orders from the court. Companies must however, agree to pay the tariffs if the decision is later upheld in court –> Slightly increased 2018 forecast as Apricum expects a slight installation rush due to drop in module prices (China oversupply). Apricum does not expect the safeguard duties (if upheld) to have a substantial effect on 2018 installations
  • Australia: 2018 is set to be another record year for PV due to the outstanding growth in the utility-scale segment, which is also complemented by high growth in the small scale segment with installations only from this segment expected to surpass overall installations in 2017 –> Increased both low and high case to reflect the strong growth in both small and large scale segments in the first half of the year
  • Turkey: Continues to show growth in its unlicensed market segment installing 1.2 GW by Q2 of 2018 –> Increased 2018 forecast to reflect strong project activity in H1 2018
  • Vietnam: PV installations in Vietnam gradually gaining traction with about 3 GW of PV projects registered for Phase I in 2018 with plans to continue with Phase ll in 2019 –> Increased mid-term forecast based on several project announcements

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q2/2018

PV & wind development in the MENAT region

 

Apricum also gathers data at a regional level, e.g., MENAT (Middle East Northern Africa and Turkey), Latin America and Asia. Let's take a closer look at the MENAT region with the following market summaries.

MENA PV market forecast

Apricum MENAT Region PV Overview

New solar installations in the MENAT region will nearly reach an astonishing 5 GW in 2018

Key Q2 2018 conclusions for MENAT:

  • The MENAT PV market is expected to take a big leap forward in 2018 and 2019, when a significant part of the pipeline under construction today is completed
  • The region’s cumulative capacity is expected to reach approximately 46.6 GWp by 2022 as installations accelerate
  • There is preference for large-scale, competitively tendered projects in MENAT; the tender framework has proven successful in Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while many additional tenders are announced or underway (e.g., in Algeria, Turkey, Egypt and Oman)
  • Low PV costs are driving a huge pipeline of projects
  • There is strong political support for solar in the region given the positive publicity from the runaway success in UAE and the need in many states to reduce the burden of energy subsidies; governments also see potential to establish a high-tech manufacturing industry
  • High degree of uncertainty (regulatory delays, regime change, slow implementation, financing risks, etc.) in some markets

Apricum MENAT Region Wind Overview

Saudi Arabia’s successful bid submission. New wind market developments in Lebanon, Oman and Kuwait.

Overview of Q2 2018 update and forecast impact:

  • Turkey: Onshore forecast unchanged but new added capacities in offshore segment –> Increased offshore capacities from 2021 onwards
  • Morocco: Grid connection of projects, although no development in the remaining other large projects –> Shift of grid connection dates for some projects to a later point in time
  • Egypt: ~340 MW of projects were commissioned –> Increased low case in short term
  • Jordan: Last 100 MW round-1 IPP project by Mass Energy forging –> Increase in 2019 forecast due to development of the 100 MW Mass Energy project
  • Saudi Arabia: EDF-Masdar consortium submitted the lowest bid out of four others –> No changes to the forecast
  • Lebanon: Huge interest in 300 MW tender –> Increased short-term forecasts
  • Kuwait: Targets 15% RE by 2030 –> Increased forecast to pursue the appointed target
  • Oman: Plans to build 3 large wind farms with a total capacity of 650 MW between 2023–2024 located near Dhofar and Duqm –> Increase of forecast in long-term
Projected Wind Demand in MENAT (GW)

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