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Market perspectives

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market intelligence

Market insights

 

Apricum's market insights: reliable, robust intelligence

As part of its tailored strategy and transaction advisory services, Apricum produces a range of proprietary models for highlighting current trends globally in renewable energy industries such as PV and wind. From these models, we produce detailed market forecast reports that are invaluable to clients who are seeking to enter the renewable industries or who are already active in renewables and require support expanding into new markets.

Global PV market forecast

Apricum Global Mid-Term PV Market Trends Q3 2018

  • The short-term global PV demand will be strongly influenced by China’s policy shift; in Apricum’s 2018 high case, China’s decline is overcompensated by growth in other markets (e.g., Australia, Germany, Mexico and the MENAT region); the opposite is forecasted in the low case
  • Amongst 2018’s largest markets, China will remain dominant with an expected ~40 GW of installed capacity by the end of the year, despite freezing support for solar in May 2018; the USA remains steady at second place, providing some clarity on its solar tax credit scheme; India keeps the third spot, although its midterm growth is hampered by protectionist policies (e.g., safeguard duties); Japan remains fourth, albeit its continuing market contraction; Australia finishes fifth with the sustained boom in both its small- and large-scale installations
  • Markets globally have largely transited from FiT-driven growth to competitive tendering, as governments seek to reduce cost of PV deployments
Apricum Global PV market forecast

Overview of key developments influencing Apricum's Q3 2018 model

  • China: China installed 34.5 GW in the first three quarters of 2018, beating expectations; this comes after the government completely abolished targets for the utility-scale segment in May 2018–> Increased 2018 forecast to reflect this positive development
  • Germany: Germany installed almost 2 GW in the first eight months of the year; an additional 4 GW of solar capacity, expected to come online in 2019–2020, was also announced                 –> Increased 2018 and mid-term forecasts to reflect optimism in the market
  • Australia: Australia installed more than 1.2 GW of new PV capacity in Q3 alone – setting an all-time high monthly addition of 658 MW in September; this positive outlook is further supported by new private and public solar initiatives in the country–> Increased 2018 and mid-term forecasts following record installations and stronger growth in the residential segment
  • Argentina: Argentina’s economy is suffering from high inflation rates; as of September 2018, the Argentinian peso has sunk by more than 50% compared to its US dollar value at the beginning of the year–> Decreased mid-term forecast to reflect difficulties in long-term financing brought about by sinking peso
  • India: Retroactive 25% safeguard duties and 18% goods and services tax rate were approved by the Supreme Court; meanwhile, latest 10 GW auction with linked manufacturing capacity tender only attracted a single bidder; Indian rupee is also at an all-time low–> Decreased mid-term forecast to reflect negative effects of new policies and declining currency

Source: Apricum PV Market Model Q3/2018

PV & wind development in the MENAT region

Apricum also gathers data at a regional level, e.g., MENAT (Middle East Northern Africa and Turkey), Latin America and Asia. Let's take a closer look at the MENAT region with the following market summaries.

MENA PV market forecast

Apricum MENAT Region PV Overview

Over 4 GW of additional solar PV capacity will be installed in the MENAT region in 2018.

Key Q3 2018 conclusions for MENAT:

  • The MENAT PV market is expected to take a big leap forward in 2018 and 2019, when a significant part of the pipeline under construction today will be completed
  • The region’s cumulative capacity is expected to reach ~46.5 GW by 2022 as market growth is sustained via large-scale auctions
  • There is preference for competitively tendered projects in MENAT; the tender framework has proven successful in Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and UAE, while many additional tenders are announced or underway (e.g., Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Tunisia)
  • Low PV costs are driving a huge pipeline of projects
  • There is strong political support for solar in the region given the positive publicity from the runaway success in UAE and the need in many states to reduce the burden of energy subsidies and the reliance on oil & gas; governments also see potential to establish a high-tech manufacturing industry
  • High degree of uncertainty (regulatory delays, regime change, slow implementation, financing risks, etc.) in some markets
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Apricum MENAT Region Wind Overview

Large projects being declared in Morocco and Egypt, signifying a new level of market maturity in the region

Overview of Q3 2018 update and forecast impact:

  • Turkey: Currently 890 MW under construction, however Lira fluctuations will slow down the development of projects–> decreased short- to mid-term forecast
  • Morocco: New large project announced with 900 MW–> long term forecast increased in high case and at the same time the mid-term forecast decreased since no development in the Enel consortium project has been observed (high and low case)
  • Egypt: ACWA Power set to build 500 MW project
    by 2022; no development in the 2 GW FiT tender; negotiations starting again on the Siemens 2 GW capacities; 340 MW of Gabel el-Zeit commissioned–> long-term forecast decreased in both high and low; increased 2018 figures to account for the two inagurated projects in 2018
  • Jordan: Bid submission for the 100 MW project is extended to a later point in time–> short-term forecast decreased due to a spillover of projects to 2020 onwards
  • Saudi Arabia: No news regarding bid processing no changes to the forecast yet
  • Oman: Construction has commenced on 50 MW Harweel project  –> shifting of the commissioning date to a year earlier
Projected Wind Demand in MENAT (GW)

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